Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Weather report from FOM Tim Rodriquez

We are very lucky at the Chamber to have Tim as our Front Office Manager. He's a master gardener and a meteorologist extraordinaire.

Here's his memo to our staff talking about the weather this weekend:




In spite of today’s media sensationalism pertaining to the approaching low pressure system, this is NOT the start of the Monsoon Season. – unless… our current high pressure dome is pushed over to, and “parks itself” over the Four Corners area.  I hope it is the beginning!

The latest are the current National Weather Service (NWS) predictions:

·         39% chance of rain Sunday daytime
·         19% chance of rain Sunday nighttime
·         37% chance of rain Monday daytime
·         14% chance of rain Monday nighttime
·         Low pressure system begins to move out on Tuesday.

These are decent odds for a “chance” of rain.  By the way, Saturday’s chance for rain is only around 7% to 10%.  Not much to write home about…

Also, the computer models have done a 180o turn in predictions:  One model is now stating a drier trend, while the other is showing a better chance of moisture.  On Monday, these two, separate computer models were indicating the opposite.  A third model is showing that all the precipitation is supposed to be east of Arizona.  Hey, these models could change by the end of the day, today!

Here’s is the latest write-up from the NWS:

BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS AZ.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO TREND DRIER WHILE THE GFS TRENDS WETTER...A REVERSAL OF
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE GEM...ON THE OTHER HAND...STILL KEEPS ALL
THE PCPN TO THE EAST OF AZ. IN ANY CASE...TEMPS WILL MODERATE DURING
THIS PERIOD AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BACK TO AZ. Hopefully, this final part is in error!

Keep your fingers crossed that we DO get some rain, and that this forces a set-up for a Monsoonal flow!  The predictions are that we should experience an average Monsson Season this summer.  If you are still unsure what the Monsoon is, let me know.  With a map, I can explain it in 2-minutes, or less…


If you trust his predictions (or not) we've got a contest going on Facebook for people to guess the next time it rains here at the Chamber offices. Whoever guesses closest wins lunch on Matt!


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